Where Area 4 Flipped

Source. Montgomery County Voter Services publishes certified results for every general election on its ArcGIS election archive, one row per precinct, contest and candidate, with a separate precinct-boundary layer per year. This page uses the 2020 through 2025 files and the 2025 boundaries. Area 4 precinct polygons changed little over the period (the largest change is Royersford 1, about two percent of its area in 2022), so one map serves all six years. The county calls two precincts "Upper Providence Mingo 1 and 2"; the voter file calls them M-1 and M-2.

What "share" means. The average-candidate two-party share: Democratic votes divided by Democratic plus Republican votes, per precinct, with minor-party and write-in votes excluded. In a race for more than one seat, each side's votes are first divided by the number of its named candidates so that a four-candidate slate against a one-candidate slate is compared per candidate. This changes only one Area 4 race (Royersford council 2021).

Baseline. The mean of a precinct's share across every contested race since 2020 that had at least one Democrat and one Republican on the ballot and more candidates than seats (federal, state, county, school and municipal; retention questions, referendums and Judge/Inspector of Election excluded). Between 40 and 49 races per precinct, a third of them from 2023's ten county row offices. Odd-year electorates are about half the size of even-year ones. Averaged per precinct the two cycles differ by a median of one point (six and a half in Royersford 2, under five everywhere else), but that average hides year swings of about five points in either direction, so the baseline is a defined historical average, not an electorate-neutral one. Single years are best read in the explorer's "vs baseline" view.

Seats. Winners are the top N vote-getters in the contest's full jurisdiction, where N is the number of seats elected, which is not always the number of votes allowed (County Commissioner elects three on a vote-for-two ballot; Jury Commissioner elects two on a vote-for-one). The 2025 municipal winners were checked against the officeholder lists published by Area 4 Democrats and agree. Contests that extend beyond Montgomery County (Spring-Ford school board Region 3, state and federal districts) are tallied on Montgomery County votes only and flagged as partial; where the out-of-county votes change the winner, the certified combined result is substituted and sourced (2021 Spring-Ford Region 3: Chester County's Spring City votes put Erica Hermans, not Tom DiBello, in the second seat by 19 votes).

Cross-filed candidates. Pennsylvania lets school board, judicial and some local candidates run in both primaries. A winner of both appears once on the general-election ballot as DEM/REP, and the county file carries no other party. The default view keeps them as their own colour. The registration guess looks the candidate's name up in the state voter file, restricted to registered voters inside the contest's own precincts, and uses the registered party when the first and last names match exactly and every match shares one party. Prefix-only first-name matches (Jon against Jonken) are left unresolved. It is a name match against the current file and can be wrong for people who moved, changed names or share a name with a neighbour.

What this cannot tell you. Board control (see the note on term lengths above). Why a precinct moved, because the file has votes and nothing else. Whether an uncontested race would have been close, because nobody ran. Anything about individual voters: every vote figure here is a precinct total from a public record, and the only person-level lookup is the registered party of candidates who cross-filed.

• Write-ins are listed by the county only in odd years, and Judge/Inspector of Election seats are often won by write-in with a handful of votes, so those offices are kept off the map.
• The 2020 file carries an Absentee bucket beside Mail-in; the two are summed.
• 2022's ballot question and 2025's Upper Providence referendum are excluded, as are judicial retention questions. 147 of the 301 contests on Area 4 ballots in the period are on the page; the rest are those exclusions.